UFC Lightweight Championship
Gray Maynard (No. 3 LW) vs. Frankie Edgar (No. 1 LW, No. 4 PFP)
I have Gray Winning this. He's stronger. He's the one with the KO power. And I'm sure he's not going to make the same mistake twice.
UFC Featherweight Championship
Jose Aldo (No. 1 FW, No. 3 PFP) vs. Kenny Florian (No. 4 FW)
My heart says Aldo. My brain says Kenny. I picked with my heart last time for Jones/Rampage and I'm going with my heart again on this. Aldo by TKO in the 3rd. Aldo is used to this weight. Kenny has had to drop muscle (strength) to achieve this weight just so he can have the size advantage. So yeah, he'll have a reach advantage, but IMO, Aldo will have the strength advantage.
Chael Sonnen vs. Brian Stann
Picking with my heart on this one too. Chael is a one trick pony. The thing is, his one trick is pretty damned good. Like, really good. He's stifled so many guys it's ridiculous. What I believe is Stann's edge is Greg Jackson game planning and Winklejohn coaching. I've watched and witnessed Jackson's game plans nullify guys and Winklejohn's striking coaching has turned guys into machines. So, I feel like Stann has the advantage. There's nothing about Sonnen that isn't predictable and that being the case, it gives Stann a chance to pick him apart. TKO round 1. Nobody's finished Sonnen because nobody is able to stand long enough. I believe Stann will change that. Winklejohn will prepare his footwork. Jackson will prepare his sprawl. Sonnen gets tagged on the feet, Stann rushes in for the flurry, drops him, and finishes with strikes.
Melvin Guillard vs. Joe Lauzon
Picking with the brain on this one because it's a no brainer. Guillard rolls through J Lau. Melvin's a new fighter since joining Jackson/Winklejohn. He's not the easily chokeable easy to take down guy from before. He has mean TDD now with great foot work to help his already impressive punching power and accuracy. I still believe he'll be the new UFC champ by the end of 2012 if not before then. Melvin by TKO round 2.
Nam Phan vs. Leonard Garcia
I got Nam winning by submission. The blueprint to beat Leonard has been written. All Nam has to do is stick to a simple game plan and get the tap.
Jeremy Stephens vs. Anthony Pettis
Going with the brain on this one. Jeremy Stephens is too powerful for Pettis. My heart wants Pettis to win, but after seeing his recent performance, I see that he's not ready for the big leagues. I hope he wins, but Jeremy has more experience in the octagon against better fighters. Jeremy's also shown signs of improvement while Pettis didn't show much. Like I said, I want Pettis to win, but I don't see it happening. He's gonna get bullied.
Demian Maia vs. Jorge Santiago
Easy analysis. Maia by submission. LOL. I just pray to God that Maia hasn't decided he's a striker now. I hate watching epic BJJ guys learn a bit of boxing and decide that they're boxers. Like, dude, do what you're good at. Anyways, if Maia sticks to his best tools, easy submission.
Stipe Miocic vs. Joey Beltran
I've heard good things about Stipe. 6-0 record. All finishes. 6'4" and a ripped 240lbs. The only problem is that he lets himself get hit too much. Against a guy like Beltran who has a granite chin and punching power, if he lets himself get into exchanges, Beltran is gonna get a KO. But with Stipe's speed and accuracy, I see Stipe getting a decision on Joey by picking his punches for 3 rounds.
Steve Cantwell vs. Mike Massenzio
I don't know much about these guys so I'm going off their records. MMA's unpredictable, but stats can help get an idea of what a guy's good at. I'm picking Messenzio for more experience and more finishes.
Aaron Simpson vs. Eric Schafer
Another record for record prediction. Going with Aaron Simpson.
Tiequan Zhang vs. Darren Elkins
Too close to pick. I don't know enough about either guy.