I actually think Cotto has a shot at winning this fight, if he sticks to a good gameplan and doesn't take unnecessary punishment like against Margarito (Margarito probably cheated anyway). If you look at Manny's record, he has never fought a TRUE, PRIME welterweight. In my opinion, this is Manny's toughest test to date. Manny has only fought above 140 once, against De La Hoya. By that point in time Oscar was slow, dehydrated, and was not as strong he was at 154, where he could compete even if he was past his prime. By the time Manny got to Oscar at 147, Oscar was no longer the true welterweight he once was. Miguel Cotto at 147 will be a lot different from a deflated De La Hoya at the same weight. Cotto will be a lot stronger than Oscar was, and it will be interesting to see how Manny deals with his power and body work. I say this is a tough fight for Manny because it is only his 2nd fight at welterweight and it is against a champion in his prime at this weight division.